Well – How Great is This?

China manufacturing down.

European manufacturing down.

Europe in for a world of hurt.

US manufacturing down.  New orders: “The 12.3 point drop in the new-orders index was the largest since the 12.4 point drop in October 2001 — just a month after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center.  ”

US corn & soybean prices are going to skyrocket.

Stocks doing not-bad because they hope Helicopter Ben prints a ship-load of money.

Are we in a recession?  12 reasons why:

  1. Europe is a disaster.
  2. US manufacturing is cooling rapidly
  3. China is cooling rapidly: China Manufacturing PMI 7-Month Low, Sharpest Decline in New Export Orders Since March 2009
  4. US Monetary policy is at best useless, but more likely net harmful, especially to those on fixed income.
  5. First year presidential politics are frequently recessionary
  6. US still needs fiscal tightening
  7. Unemployment insurance has expired for millions: 200,000 Lose Unemployment Benefits This Week, Nearly Half From California
  8. Self-Employment desperation: 100% of U.S. Jobs Added Since 2010 Have Been Self-Employment, Contractor, or Other Jobs Without Unemployment Insurance Benefits
  9. Last two jobs reports have been dismal: Another Payroll Disaster: Jobs +69,000, Employment Rate +.1 to 8.2%, April Jobs Revised Lower to +77,000; Long-term Unemployment +310,000
  10. The 4-week moving average of weekly unemployment claims is at the highest rate of the year, at 386,250.
  11. New home sales cannot gain significant traction: New Home Sales Hype vs. Reality
  12. Tax Armageddon

 

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