Am I the Only One [cont’d]

Who thinks Obama is the reason for the collapse of 2008?

From the CNBC story “Things Could Get Much Worse“:

“Whereas moves like the Fed’s quantitative easing program helped restart the illiquid economy during the financial crisis in 2008, few economists think a third version of QE will have much impact.”

What caused the “illiquid economy”?  The illiquid economy started in June of 2008 – when it became dreadfully apparent to all that Obama was going to be the next President of the world’s largest economy.

Am I the Only One –

who sees it?

Dan Mitchell has this stark comparison of Obamanomics vs Reaganomics – and the point is missed.  A point I’ve made before.  The economy was in a mild recession until June of 2008 when it became dreadfully apparent that Barack Obama was going to be elected and have strong support in both Houses of Congress.

Here’s the chart:

Mitchell’s point is summarized here: “Under Obama’s policies, by contrast, we’ve just barely gotten back to where we were when the recession began. Unlike past recessions, we haven’t enjoyed a strong bounce. And this means we haven’t recovered the output that was lost during the downturn.”

The 2007 recession took a nose-dive 4 quarters after its start.  What was happening in mid-2008?  Why Barack Obama was accepting Hilary Clinton’s endorsement.

So – am I the only one?  And if so – am I the only one because I’ve noticed something that no one else has or because what I’ve noticed really isn’t there?  It looks like an inflection point – a point in a process where an event happened that caused the process to go out of control.

Well – How Great is This?

China manufacturing down.

European manufacturing down.

Europe in for a world of hurt.

US manufacturing down.  New orders: “The 12.3 point drop in the new-orders index was the largest since the 12.4 point drop in October 2001 — just a month after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center.  ”

US corn & soybean prices are going to skyrocket.

Stocks doing not-bad because they hope Helicopter Ben prints a ship-load of money.

Are we in a recession?  12 reasons why:

  1. Europe is a disaster.
  2. US manufacturing is cooling rapidly
  3. China is cooling rapidly: China Manufacturing PMI 7-Month Low, Sharpest Decline in New Export Orders Since March 2009
  4. US Monetary policy is at best useless, but more likely net harmful, especially to those on fixed income.
  5. First year presidential politics are frequently recessionary
  6. US still needs fiscal tightening
  7. Unemployment insurance has expired for millions: 200,000 Lose Unemployment Benefits This Week, Nearly Half From California
  8. Self-Employment desperation: 100% of U.S. Jobs Added Since 2010 Have Been Self-Employment, Contractor, or Other Jobs Without Unemployment Insurance Benefits
  9. Last two jobs reports have been dismal: Another Payroll Disaster: Jobs +69,000, Employment Rate +.1 to 8.2%, April Jobs Revised Lower to +77,000; Long-term Unemployment +310,000
  10. The 4-week moving average of weekly unemployment claims is at the highest rate of the year, at 386,250.
  11. New home sales cannot gain significant traction: New Home Sales Hype vs. Reality
  12. Tax Armageddon

 

Typical

Reports are that the initial jobless claims are unchanged from last week – holding steady at 370,000.  Of course – reading the Reuters story deeper instead of just the headline, and we see that the steady repeat of BS that Zero Hedge caught on to continues:

“The prior week’s figure was revised up to 370,000 from the previously reported 367,000.”

Last week’s figures were revised up so that this week’s report is holding steady.  Which means that when next week’s initial figures come out, this weeks figures will be revised up, and only then will accurate report of the increase in jobless claims be repeated – of course with a headline with a fresh lie.